David and Goliath: Is Google+ a Facebook Killer?

Over the past few days, the buzz surrounding Google's new social effort, Google+, has become inescapble. Google is executing the same strategy that successfully launched Gmail to prominence--Google+ is currently invite only. Though I see this strategy as little more than a gimmick (if you haven't found a Google+ invite by now, you're probably not reading this tech blog), it's an effective one. Not only does this invite system give the illusion of exclusivity, invites are a powerful form of social proof. If a good friend invites you to Google+, Google doesn't have to sell it to you--your friend already has. Exclusivity is one, often credited factor in Facebook's early success, and Google seems to be employing it with similar success.

Dismissing Google as a latecomer in a crowded market is all too tempting. Facebook is a firmly established monopoly, Twitter seems to be an unstoppable force, and nobody has replicated Skype's success in eight years. I'm here to make a strong prediction of Google+'s success. Let me explain.

Rather than struggling to catch established services in the social networking sphere, I think Google is benefitting from 8 years of observation in a previously non-existent market. After using Google+ for a week or so, it's easy to see the service as a distillation of several social services. The "stream" is obviously copied directly from Facebook, "hangouts" are a form of Skype on steroids, and "huddles" are a GroupMe clone. Of course, photo sharing, tagging, and commenting are features common to pretty much all social networks. Perhaps the best example of benefitting from others' experience is the feature that allows a user to view their own profile as any other person on the internet. This feature obviously benefits from Facebook's hard learned lessons about user privacy. Google has struggled mightily and publicly in the social networking market, but Google+ seems to be a well thought out rebuttal.

Beyond benefitting from experience and, frankly, copying many killer features of other platforms, Google+ benefits from some inherent advantages. I check my Gmail upwards of 87 times a day. I check facebook about 0.8 times a day. I don't think my usage habits are an anomally. The fact that the Google+ notification icon shows up in my Gmail inbox is an advantage that can't be overstated.

Further, the features that are unique to Google+, among social networks, seem to benefit from a lot of thought and social intelligence. The idea of designating a person as part of a particular "circle" is such a close analog of real life that I have no doubt it will be popular.

Google+ also benefits from synergies with Google's other products. The fact that I can check my email, keep my calendar, create collaborative documents, search the internet, and now use my social network all from one place is immenseley valuable to me. Combine that with the fact that Google's services integrate with my Android cell phone 23 times better than Facebook's, and I'm shamelessly rooting for Google+ to become the dominant social network.

Don't get me wrong, Facebook isn't going anywhere for a long time. That service is extremely popular--and for good reason. For the most part, Facebook innovates in the social networking sphere better than any other company.

Putting all strategic prognosticating aside, Google+ is a beautiful piece of engineering. Obviously benefitting from a Google-wide redesign effort, Google+ is minimalist and light but feels strong. If that's not the definition of good design, I don't know what is. The Android application is no different--standing in stark contrast to the "An error had occurred when fetching data. [null]" I get every other time I open Facebook's Android app.

Google seems to recognize the stakes in the social networking race and has responded with a strong entry. I'm excited to see how the service matures. "+1" for Google+.